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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-05 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-05
105 matched props 52 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-06 Older: 2026-06-04

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 105
Grouped Pitchers 18
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 52
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-05 | Raw sportsbook rows: 105 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-05/strikeout_edges_2026-06-05.json
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs BOS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Under +19.91%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -26.84% / Under gap +19.91%
Under +19.91%
DraftKings
6.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -24.46% / Under gap +18.32%
Under +18.32%
FanDuel
6.5
O +112 / U -138
Over gap -21.63% / Under gap +16.48%
Under +16.48%
FanDuel
6.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -22.54% / Under gap +16.48%
Under +16.48%
FanDuel
8.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -11.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +194 / U --
Over gap -18.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -25.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -30.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -31.01% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.5% | U 74.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.8
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.74
Strongest Gap Under +12.58%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap -17.53% / Under gap +12.58%
Under +12.58%
DraftKings
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -18.03% / Under gap +11.97%
Under +11.97%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -18.75% / Under gap +11.97%
Under +11.97%
Model O 32.5% | U 67.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.2
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs TOR | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.41
Strongest Gap Under +10.60%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +131 / U -168
Over gap -16.58% / Under gap +10.60%
Under +10.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -168
Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +10.60%
Under +10.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -168
Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +10.60%
Under +10.60%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -17.28% / Under gap +9.99%
Under +9.99%
FanDuel
6.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -11.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -21.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -23.71% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.7% | U 73.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.2
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.12
Strongest Gap Under +10.37%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -17.39% / Under gap +10.37%
Under +10.37%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -17.39% / Under gap +10.37%
Under +10.37%
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -17.39% / Under gap +9.65%
Under +9.65%
DraftKings
4.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -15.21% / Under gap +9.18%
Under +9.18%
FanDuel
7.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap -4.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -7.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -18.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -21.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.2
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs DET | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.17
Strongest Gap Under +10.09%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -17.09% / Under gap +10.09%
Under +10.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -17.09% / Under gap +10.09%
Under +10.09%
DraftKings
5.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap -16.01% / Under gap +9.85%
Under +9.85%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -12.60% / Under gap +5.62%
Under +5.62%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -2.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -6.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -11.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -12.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -17.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -19.44% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.5
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs NYY | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.86
Strongest Gap Under +8.29%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -15.07% / Under gap +8.29%
Under +8.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -125
Over gap -15.31% / Under gap +8.29%
Under +8.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -125
Over gap -15.31% / Under gap +8.29%
Under +8.29%
DraftKings
5.5
O -101 / U -126
Over gap -14.10% / Under gap +8.10%
Under +8.10%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -3.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -6.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -11.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -14.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -19.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -21.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.1% | U 63.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.9
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs SEA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.54
Strongest Gap Over +7.27%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +7.27% / Under gap --
Over +7.27%
FanDuel
6.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap +7.26% / Under gap --
Over +7.26%
FanDuel
5.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap +5.09% / Under gap --
Over +5.09%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +3.96% / Under gap -11.41%
Over +3.96%
FanDuel
4.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap +2.73% / Under gap -7.71%
Over +2.73%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +1.73% / Under gap -7.71%
Over +1.73%
DraftKings
4.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap +1.25% / Under gap -7.28%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -4.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -5.64% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.21
Strongest Gap Under +6.68%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -13.46% / Under gap +6.68%
Under +6.68%
DraftKings
6.5
O -112 / U -113
Over gap -10.73% / Under gap +4.85%
Under +4.85%
FanDuel
6.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap -7.90% / Under gap +2.95%
Under +2.95%
Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.5
Edward Cabrera headshot

Edward Cabrera
CHC vs SF | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.89
Strongest Gap Over +5.89%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +5.89% / Under gap --
Over +5.89%
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +5.36% / Under gap --
Over +5.36%
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -132
Over gap +3.83% / Under gap -8.81%
Over +3.83%
FanDuel
3.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -3.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.1% | U 75.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.7
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.35
Strongest Gap Under +5.18%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -11.96% / Under gap +5.18%
Under +5.18%
DraftKings
5.5
O -119 / U -108
Over gap -10.74% / Under gap +4.48%
Under +4.48%
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap -6.40% / Under gap +1.45%
No Play
Model O 43.6% | U 56.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.8
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs ATL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.34
Strongest Gap Under +5.17%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -122 / U -108
Over gap -12.04% / Under gap +5.17%
Under +5.17%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -108
Over gap -12.04% / Under gap +5.17%
Under +5.17%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -9.01% / Under gap +2.96%
Under +2.96%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -8.31% / Under gap +1.53%
Under +1.53%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -2.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -4.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -7.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -14.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -300 / U --
Over gap -14.81% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.6
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs MIL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.97
Strongest Gap Over +4.48%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +102 / U -131
Over gap +4.48% / Under gap -10.69%
Over +4.48%
FanDuel
3.5
O -105 / U -115
Over gap +2.76% / Under gap -7.47%
Over +2.76%
BetMGM
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -1.58% / Under gap -5.20%
No Play
Model O 54.0% | U 46.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.9
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs MIN | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.71
Strongest Gap Under +4.22%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -9.28% / Under gap +4.22%
Under +4.22%
DraftKings
4.5
O -145 / U +114
Over gap -10.13% / Under gap +4.22%
Under +4.22%
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -6.51% / Under gap -0.27%
No Play
Model O 49.0% | U 50.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.2
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs KC | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.95
Strongest Gap Under +4.14%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -11.25% / Under gap +4.14%
Under +4.14%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -8.34% / Under gap +3.45%
Under +3.45%
DraftKings
5.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap -6.91% / Under gap +0.93%
No Play
Model O 37.5% | U 62.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.9
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs CHC | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap Over +3.86%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +3.86% / Under gap --
Over +3.86%
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +3.47% / Under gap --
Over +3.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +2.11% / Under gap --
Over +2.11%
DraftKings
4.5
O -159 / U +125
Over gap -5.81% / Under gap -0.02%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -2.40% / Under gap -4.60%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -2.40% / Under gap -4.60%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -3.60% / Under gap -4.36%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -7.35% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.4% | U 82.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.7
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs STL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.38
Strongest Gap Over +3.37%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +3.37% / Under gap -10.82%
Over +3.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O -154 / U +126
Over gap +0.19% / Under gap -5.07%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -157 / U +122
Over gap -0.27% / Under gap -5.87%
No Play
Model O 60.8% | U 39.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.5
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs CLE | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap Over +2.60%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap +2.60% / Under gap -7.76%
Over +2.60%
DraftKings
3.5
O -129 / U +102
Over gap +2.41% / Under gap -8.24%
Over +2.41%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -2.80% / Under gap -4.19%
No Play
Model O 58.7% | U 41.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.3
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs WSH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.51
Strongest Gap No Play +1.13%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +124 / U -152
Over gap +1.13% / Under gap -6.09%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +0.57% / Under gap -7.27%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap -5.77%
No Play
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.