The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (340+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Church, Nathan in signal, the comp in amber.

STL · bats L · 487 PA

Ranked comps for Church, Nathan

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Giménez, Andrés TOR · L · 519 PA 0.79 Isolated powerIn-zone contactGround-ball rate Sweet-spot rate -1.1zPull rate +0.9zWalk rate -0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Rafaela, Ceddanne BOS · R · 605 PA 0.78 Barrel rateMax exit velocityGround-ball rate Oppo rate +1.1zIsolated power +0.9zWhiff rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Gonzales, Nick PIT · R · 626 PA 0.67 Sweet-spot rateStrikeout rateOppo rate Chase rate -1.7zGround-ball rate +1.1zSwing length +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
04 McCarthy, Jake COL · L · 620 PA 0.65 Barrel rateSwing lengthMax exit velocity Oppo rate -1.6zIsolated power +1.3zSprint speed +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L · 635 PA 0.64 Hard-hit rateMax exit velocityxwOBA on contact Chase rate -1.6zOppo rate -1.3zPull rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Young, Jacob WSH · R · 488 PA 0.64 Max exit velocityStrikeout rateBat speed Chase rate -2.4zFly-ball rate +0.9zAvg exit velocity +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 474 PA 0.63 Ground-ball rateMax exit velocityPull rate Chase rate -1.8zSprint speed -1.2zAvg exit velocity +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R · 612 PA 0.61 Oppo rateIn-zone contactFly-ball rate Avg exit velocity +1.4zHard-hit rate +1.1zStrikeout rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Sanoja, Javier MIA · R · 498 PA 0.60 Oppo rateWalk rateSprint speed Strikeout rate -1.5zIn-zone contact +1.4zWhiff rate -1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Cronenworth, Jake SD · L · 464 PA 0.59 Hard-hit rateFly-ball rateWhiff rate Chase rate -2.2zWalk rate +1.2zSweet-spot rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Taveras, Leody BAL · L · 496 PA 0.59 Avg exit velocityxwOBA on contactIsolated power Chase rate -1.6zStrikeout rate +1.6zSweet-spot rate -1.4z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Edman, Tommy LAD · L · 347 PA 0.58 Swing lengthGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact Chase rate -1.8zSweet-spot rate -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.