Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs KC | 6.53 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs ATH | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 5.24 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIL | 5.14 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BAL | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.65 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 4.63 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TB | 4.59 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SD | 4.46 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIN | 4.34 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SF | 4.09 | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs LAD | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs STL | 3.88 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs HOU | 3.83 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable starter
|
STL vs PHI | 3.52 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.