Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 6.23 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SD | 5.92 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 5.75 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CWS | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATH | 5.00 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Alec Gamboa
Probable starter
|
BOS vs AZ | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kent Emanuel
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs PIT | 4.60 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CHC | 4.58 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATL | 4.36 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs BOS | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 4.18 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 4.14 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs DET | 3.57 | 20.8% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 13.8 | 10 | 3 |
Mason Barnett
Probable starter
|
ATH vs KC | 3.44 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.42 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 3.31 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 3.20 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIN | 3.12 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYM | 3.11 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 2.90 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.