Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 6.79 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CWS | 5.94 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 5.58 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 5.54 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYM | 5.21 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SEA | 5.14 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATL | 5.07 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 5.05 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs DET | 5.00 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs AZ | 4.65 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Hudson
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CHC | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TEX | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SF | 4.17 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SD | 4.11 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIL | 4.06 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 4.03 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIN | 4.03 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs BOS | 3.99 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 3.90 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATH | 3.88 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 3.86 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.82 | 19.0% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 3.45 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Brady Basso
Probable starter
|
ATH vs KC | 3.36 | 20.9% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
George Klassen
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 3.31 | 21.2% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 2 |
Carson Whisenhunt
Probable starter
|
SF vs CLE | 3.29 | 19.4% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Gibson
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 3.24 | 21.3% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs WSH | 3.23 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.20 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs PIT | 3.12 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.