Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 6.95 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIL | 6.55 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 6.46 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 5.93 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs AZ | 5.26 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIA | 5.19 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SD | 4.99 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 4.88 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs PHI | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.81 | 21.5% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs CLE | 4.78 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 4.74 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 4.61 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.60 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAD | 4.47 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 4.35 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.32 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CIN | 4.29 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 4.29 | 23.8% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs PIT | 4.06 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs LAA | 4.02 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs KC | 3.94 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs BOS | 3.93 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 3.92 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIN | 3.90 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 3.85 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 3.69 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.15 | 19.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.