Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs STL | 6.23 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PIT | 6.13 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 5.92 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 5.58 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CWS | 5.54 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 5.05 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SEA | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.77 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SF | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CIN | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Sean Newcomb
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYM | 4.60 | 23.5% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CHC | 4.45 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Matt Wilkinson
Probable starter
|
SF vs BOS | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIL | 4.03 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SD | 3.98 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Waguespack
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 3.90 | 21.9% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 3.88 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATL | 3.86 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs COL | 3.79 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs AZ | 3.65 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 3.58 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAD | 3.55 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIN | 3.49 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 3.48 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 3.45 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs CLE | 3.42 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Brady Basso
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 3.36 | 20.9% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 3.23 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs PHI | 3.20 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.