Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 6.57 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PIT | 6.55 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 6.46 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 5.26 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIN | 5.17 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 5.00 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYM | 4.96 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATL | 4.85 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.67 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs CLE | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CHC | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CIN | 4.67 | 23.8% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAD | 4.62 | 23.8% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 7 | 1 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs COL | 4.60 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 4.54 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SF | 4.44 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SD | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SEA | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs PHI | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs STL | 4.28 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 4.23 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.22 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CWS | 3.94 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 3.92 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 3.80 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs AZ | 3.75 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 3.69 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 3.56 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs BOS | 3.47 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIL | 3.12 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.