Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs PHI | 6.52 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SEA | 6.40 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SF | 5.88 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs PIT | 5.60 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs AZ | 5.56 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs BOS | 5.11 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs TB | 4.98 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIN | 4.70 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATH | 4.69 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
José Urquidy
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TEX | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SD | 4.62 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs LAA | 4.39 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CHC | 4.37 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIA | 4.27 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs DET | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CWS | 3.85 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
George Klassen
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CLE | 3.69 | 21.2% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 2 |
Carson Whisenhunt
Probable starter
|
SF vs CIN | 3.67 | 19.4% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 3.44 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 3.44 | 19.0% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.