Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs LAD
Score 58.8 | Lineup K 6.13
|
6.79 | 6.74 | -0.05 | 86.0% | 75.2% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 36.7% |
Cole Ragans
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 80.6 | Lineup K 6.28
|
6.47 | 6.56 | +0.09 | 84.8% | 73.4% | 60.2% | 46.8% | 34.5% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 53.1 | Lineup K 5.93
|
6.37 | 6.23 | -0.14 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIL
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 5.90
|
6.11 | 6.22 | +0.11 | 82.3% | 69.8% | 55.9% | 42.2% | 30.2% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CWS
Score 72.2 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.95 | 5.97 | +0.02 | 80.2% | 66.9% | 52.5% | 38.8% | 27.1% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SF
Score 61.1 | Lineup K 5.66
|
5.85 | 5.83 | -0.02 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIN
Score 61.6 | Lineup K 6.47
|
5.29 | 5.81 | +0.52 | 78.7% | 65.0% | 50.3% | 36.6% | 25.2% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 67.0 | Lineup K 5.82
|
5.54 | 5.71 | +0.17 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs ATH
Score 51.7 | Lineup K 5.66
|
5.46 | 5.59 | +0.13 | 76.5% | 62.1% | 47.1% | 33.6% | 22.6% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CIN
Score 69.3 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.21 | 5.47 | +0.26 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Joe Boyle
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CHC
Score 37.7 | Lineup K 4.77
|
5.70 | 5.37 | -0.33 | 74.1% | 59.1% | 43.9% | 30.6% | 20.0% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PIT
Score 66.8 | Lineup K 5.90
|
4.96 | 5.36 | +0.40 | 74.0% | 58.9% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.9% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs LAA
Score 60.4 | Lineup K 6.23
|
4.76 | 5.32 | +0.56 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 4.57
|
5.58 | 5.21 | -0.37 | 72.3% | 56.8% | 41.5% | 28.4% | 18.2% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIA
Score 51.8 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.86 | 5.02 | +0.16 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 5.36
|
4.61 | 4.93 | +0.32 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs SD
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.86 | 4.92 | +0.06 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs AZ
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.69 | 4.63 | -0.06 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYY
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.21 | 4.54 | +0.33 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs HOU
Score 33.2 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.52 | 4.40 | -0.12 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs BAL
Score 30.6 | Lineup K 4.85
|
4.22 | 4.37 | +0.15 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PHI
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 4.66
|
4.25 | 4.37 | +0.12 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs COL
Score 53.7 | Lineup K 5.49
|
3.84 | 4.31 | +0.47 | 59.7% | 42.4% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 9.5% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs NYM
Score 28.6 | Lineup K 4.29
|
4.01 | 4.08 | +0.07 | 55.9% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 14.1% | 7.7% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs TB
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 4.28
|
3.90 | 4.05 | +0.15 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs STL
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 3.92
|
3.81 | 3.82 | +0.01 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs WSH
Score 29.8 | Lineup K 3.54
|
3.58 | 3.54 | -0.04 | 46.0% | 29.0% | 16.6% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.