Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIA
Score 84.6 | Lineup K 7.01
|
6.81 | 7.00 | +0.19 | 87.6% | 77.6% | 65.4% | 52.4% | 40.0% |
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CLE
Score 80.5 | Lineup K 6.34
|
6.75 | 6.77 | +0.02 | 86.2% | 75.5% | 62.7% | 49.5% | 37.1% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 5.86
|
6.59 | 6.44 | -0.15 | 83.9% | 72.2% | 58.7% | 45.2% | 33.0% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs COL
Score 72.6 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.22 | 6.41 | +0.19 | 83.7% | 71.9% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 32.6% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs ATH
Score 73.4 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.21 | 6.40 | +0.19 | 83.7% | 71.8% | 58.2% | 44.6% | 32.5% |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs WSH
Score 75.3 | Lineup K 5.88
|
5.80 | 5.89 | +0.09 | 79.4% | 65.9% | 51.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 65.8 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.80 | 5.78 | -0.02 | 78.4% | 64.6% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 24.8% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAD
Score 58.5 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.49 | 5.56 | +0.07 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs CIN
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 6.31
|
4.93 | 5.38 | +0.45 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TOR
Score 50.5 | Lineup K 5.16
|
5.23 | 5.31 | +0.08 | 73.5% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 29.7% | 19.4% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs DET
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.04 | 5.10 | +0.06 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs ATL
Score 50.3 | Lineup K 5.51
|
4.88 | 5.10 | +0.22 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs LAA
Score 50.3 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.70 | 4.94 | +0.24 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PHI
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 5.51
|
4.49 | 4.84 | +0.35 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CWS
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.83 | 4.72 | -0.11 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Cade Povich
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SF
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 4.71
|
4.70 | 4.67 | -0.03 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs MIN
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.35
|
4.12 | 4.66 | +0.54 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYM
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.24 | 4.36 | +0.12 | 60.5% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs STL
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 5.31
|
3.91 | 4.33 | +0.42 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 39.0 | Lineup K 4.58
|
4.32 | 4.33 | +0.01 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs NYY
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 4.77
|
3.97 | 4.28 | +0.31 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs BAL
Score 30.7 | Lineup K 4.89
|
3.81 | 4.12 | +0.31 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIL
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 4.21
|
4.20 | 4.12 | -0.08 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SD
Score 19.9 | Lineup K 3.77
|
4.04 | 3.85 | -0.19 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs BOS
Score 27.6 | Lineup K 4.42
|
3.57 | 3.76 | +0.19 | 50.2% | 32.8% | 19.6% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.