Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs TEX
Score 74.3 | Lineup K 6.44
|
6.51 | 6.61 | +0.10 | 85.1% | 73.9% | 60.8% | 47.4% | 35.1% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs AZ
Score 58.1 | Lineup K 5.30
|
6.91 | 6.39 | -0.52 | 83.6% | 71.7% | 58.1% | 44.5% | 32.3% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CWS
Score 60.2 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.33 | 5.41 | +0.08 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.31
|
5.08 | 5.23 | +0.15 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SF
Score 54.7 | Lineup K 5.29
|
5.04 | 5.15 | +0.11 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CLE
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 4.60
|
5.23 | 4.98 | -0.25 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYM
Score 53.0 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.21 | 4.77 | +0.56 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs WSH
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.70 | 4.76 | +0.06 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs BOS
Score 34.1 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.58 | 4.63 | +0.05 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs ATH
Score 40.9 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.26 | 4.59 | +0.33 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs BAL
Score 36.9 | Lineup K 4.86
|
4.51 | 4.58 | +0.07 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PHI
Score 37.2 | Lineup K 4.67
|
4.49 | 4.51 | +0.02 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs ATL
Score 27.2 | Lineup K 4.29
|
4.52 | 4.36 | -0.16 | 60.5% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs MIN
Score 32.3 | Lineup K 4.86
|
4.08 | 4.33 | +0.25 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Luis Gil
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 4.67
|
4.05 | 4.25 | +0.20 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TOR
Score 33.4 | Lineup K 4.04
|
4.38 | 4.25 | -0.13 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIL
Score 27.0 | Lineup K 4.25
|
4.23 | 4.20 | -0.03 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 21.7 | Lineup K 3.86
|
4.50 | 4.18 | -0.32 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs KC
Score 27.9 | Lineup K 3.96
|
4.29 | 4.10 | -0.19 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs COL
Score 38.6 | Lineup K 4.75
|
3.80 | 4.09 | +0.29 | 56.1% | 38.6% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAD
Score 27.3 | Lineup K 4.53
|
3.86 | 4.02 | +0.16 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIA
Score 35.4 | Lineup K 3.97
|
3.78 | 3.84 | +0.06 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs DET
Score 29.0 | Lineup K 4.35
|
3.53 | 3.79 | +0.26 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs CIN
Score 27.1 | Lineup K 4.87
|
3.15 | 3.46 | +0.31 | 44.5% | 27.6% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SD
Score 21.6 | Lineup K 3.64
|
3.47 | 3.45 | -0.02 | 44.3% | 27.4% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs CHC
Score 20.5 | Lineup K 2.77
|
3.70 | 3.33 | -0.37 | 41.9% | 25.3% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.