Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs NYY
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 6.78
|
6.55 | 6.71 | +0.16 | 85.8% | 74.9% | 62.0% | 48.7% | 36.4% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CIN
Score 75.5 | Lineup K 6.67
|
6.30 | 6.56 | +0.26 | 84.8% | 73.4% | 60.2% | 46.8% | 34.5% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CHC
Score 67.6 | Lineup K 5.26
|
5.98 | 5.81 | -0.17 | 78.7% | 65.0% | 50.3% | 36.6% | 25.2% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 68.8 | Lineup K 5.46
|
5.47 | 5.55 | +0.08 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs HOU
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 4.98
|
5.05 | 5.06 | +0.01 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Ben Brown
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 4.89
|
5.13 | 5.02 | -0.11 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.90
|
5.11 | 5.00 | -0.11 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SD
Score 58.8 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.69 | 4.93 | +0.24 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs LAA
Score 66.9 | Lineup K 6.06
|
4.20 | 4.77 | +0.57 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CWS
Score 51.4 | Lineup K 4.70
|
4.42 | 4.52 | +0.10 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SF
Score 42.8 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.45 | 4.39 | -0.06 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs STL
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 5.46
|
3.89 | 4.37 | +0.48 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs KC
Score 47.3 | Lineup K 4.64
|
4.24 | 4.37 | +0.13 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs COL
Score 52.7 | Lineup K 5.37
|
3.83 | 4.34 | +0.51 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 24.2 | Lineup K 4.48
|
4.07 | 4.13 | +0.06 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs AZ
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 3.85
|
4.25 | 4.04 | -0.21 | 55.2% | 37.7% | 23.6% | 13.7% | 7.4% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PIT
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 4.22
|
3.83 | 3.90 | +0.07 | 52.7% | 35.3% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 36.9 | Lineup K 3.58
|
3.48 | 3.44 | -0.04 | 44.1% | 27.2% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIA
Score 30.3 | Lineup K 4.25
|
3.10 | 3.42 | +0.32 | 43.7% | 26.9% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.