Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs KC
Score 76.3 | Lineup K 6.21
|
6.53 | 6.55 | +0.02 | 84.7% | 73.3% | 60.1% | 46.6% | 34.3% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs NYY
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 6.51
|
6.31 | 6.44 | +0.13 | 83.9% | 72.2% | 58.7% | 45.2% | 33.0% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 53.1 | Lineup K 5.93
|
6.15 | 6.09 | -0.06 | 81.2% | 68.3% | 54.2% | 40.5% | 28.6% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs LAA
Score 66.3 | Lineup K 6.58
|
5.69 | 6.08 | +0.39 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs PHI
Score 69.1 | Lineup K 6.06
|
5.61 | 5.86 | +0.25 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs ATH
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.57
|
5.05 | 5.24 | +0.19 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 54.1 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.94 | 5.02 | +0.08 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs LAD
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 5.32
|
4.84 | 5.00 | +0.16 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs CWS
Score 55.0 | Lineup K 5.22
|
4.81 | 4.97 | +0.16 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TB
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 4.79
|
4.97 | 4.92 | -0.05 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs BAL
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 5.74
|
4.44 | 4.88 | +0.44 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs ATL
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.72 | 4.81 | +0.09 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIN
Score 59.4 | Lineup K 5.54
|
4.21 | 4.71 | +0.50 | 65.8% | 49.0% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 13.1% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 42.7 | Lineup K 5.46
|
4.20 | 4.61 | +0.41 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SD
Score 37.3 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.36 | 4.44 | +0.08 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 44.4 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.05 | 4.37 | +0.32 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs WSH
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.02 | 4.31 | +0.29 | 59.7% | 42.4% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 9.5% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs HOU
Score 26.3 | Lineup K 4.16
|
4.36 | 4.21 | -0.15 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIA
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 3.70
|
3.04 | 3.19 | +0.15 | 39.1% | 22.9% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIL
Score 21.1 | Lineup K 3.60
|
3.03 | 3.15 | +0.12 | 38.3% | 22.3% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.