Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | confirmed
|
MIL vs MIN
Score 69.7 | Lineup K 5.13
|
6.36 | 6.02 | -0.34 | 80.6% | 67.5% | 53.2% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | confirmed
|
NYY vs ATL
Score 64.3 | Lineup K 5.66
|
5.98 | 5.88 | -0.10 | 79.3% | 65.8% | 51.3% | 37.6% | 26.0% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | confirmed
|
PHI vs TOR
Score 60.3 | Lineup K 5.07
|
6.31 | 5.81 | -0.50 | 78.7% | 65.0% | 50.3% | 36.6% | 25.2% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs DET
Score 56.3 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.69 | 5.80 | +0.11 | 78.6% | 64.8% | 50.1% | 36.5% | 25.1% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | confirmed
|
CLE vs CWS
Score 55.4 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.97 | 5.05 | +0.08 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | confirmed
|
NYM vs PIT
Score 67.5 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.46 | 4.95 | +0.49 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | confirmed
|
ATL vs NYY
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 5.61
|
4.44 | 4.78 | +0.34 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | confirmed
|
CHC vs KC
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 4.50
|
4.94 | 4.68 | -0.26 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | confirmed
|
ATH vs BOS
Score 64.5 | Lineup K 6.33
|
4.14 | 4.64 | +0.50 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | confirmed
|
MIA vs LAA
Score 55.2 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.36 | 4.64 | +0.28 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Shane Bieber
Probable | confirmed
|
TOR vs PHI
Score 46.2 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.58 | 4.64 | +0.06 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 34.9 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.39 | 4.56 | +0.17 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Cade Povich
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TEX
Score 35.4 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.39 | 4.49 | +0.10 | 62.5% | 45.4% | 30.4% | 18.9% | 11.0% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BAL
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.22 | 4.38 | +0.16 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CLE
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 3.91
|
4.36 | 4.15 | -0.21 | 57.1% | 39.6% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
Brad Lord
Probable | confirmed
|
WSH vs CIN
Score 40.3 | Lineup K 4.65
|
3.92 | 4.10 | +0.18 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Brady Singer
Probable | confirmed
|
CIN vs WSH
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 4.61
|
3.90 | 4.10 | +0.20 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TB
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 3.70
|
4.28 | 4.00 | -0.28 | 54.5% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | confirmed
|
COL vs STL
Score 40.7 | Lineup K 4.28
|
3.75 | 3.87 | +0.12 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SD
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.63
|
3.06 | 3.39 | +0.33 | 43.1% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs HOU
Score 15.3 | Lineup K 3.27
|
3.48 | 3.31 | -0.17 | 41.5% | 25.0% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | confirmed
|
STL vs COL
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 4.58
|
2.96 | 3.25 | +0.29 | 40.3% | 24.0% | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.