Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIN
Score 68.5 | Lineup K 6.16
|
5.93 | 6.10 | +0.17 | 81.3% | 68.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 28.7% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 69.1 | Lineup K 6.53
|
5.69 | 6.08 | +0.39 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 63.7 | Lineup K 6.07
|
5.77 | 5.94 | +0.17 | 79.9% | 66.6% | 52.1% | 38.4% | 26.8% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs LAD
Score 59.8 | Lineup K 5.31
|
5.98 | 5.79 | -0.19 | 78.5% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 36.4% | 24.9% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 66.1 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.61 | 5.74 | +0.13 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 68.8 | Lineup K 5.46
|
5.48 | 5.56 | +0.08 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 55.4 | Lineup K 5.04
|
5.32 | 5.24 | -0.08 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs SD
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 4.88
|
5.35 | 5.16 | -0.19 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs WSH
Score 58.9 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.84 | 5.02 | +0.18 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 53.9 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.52 | 4.93 | +0.41 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs PIT
Score 69.5 | Lineup K 6.29
|
4.30 | 4.89 | +0.59 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs AZ
Score 40.9 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.82 | 4.75 | -0.07 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIA
Score 51.1 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.28 | 4.64 | +0.36 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SEA
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.47 | 4.54 | +0.07 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CIN
Score 49.7 | Lineup K 5.53
|
3.98 | 4.46 | +0.48 | 62.1% | 44.9% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs ATL
Score 39.1 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.02 | 4.39 | +0.37 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.75 | 3.97 | +0.22 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 21.3 | Lineup K 3.86
|
3.90 | 3.80 | -0.10 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Brad Lord
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs NYM
Score 27.3 | Lineup K 3.95
|
3.54 | 3.62 | +0.08 | 47.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 23.7 | Lineup K 3.83
|
2.58 | 2.83 | +0.25 | 31.7% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.