Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs PIT
Score 86.1 | Lineup K 7.14
|
6.55 | 6.95 | +0.40 | 87.3% | 77.1% | 64.8% | 51.8% | 39.4% |
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs NYY
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 6.78
|
6.57 | 6.72 | +0.15 | 85.9% | 75.0% | 62.2% | 48.9% | 36.5% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATH
Score 73.3 | Lineup K 6.56
|
6.46 | 6.62 | +0.16 | 85.2% | 74.0% | 61.0% | 47.5% | 35.2% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs NYM
Score 53.0 | Lineup K 5.81
|
4.96 | 5.27 | +0.31 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs COL
Score 69.2 | Lineup K 6.38
|
4.60 | 5.23 | +0.63 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIN
Score 39.3 | Lineup K 4.69
|
5.17 | 4.96 | -0.21 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs DET
Score 41.2 | Lineup K 4.83
|
5.00 | 4.91 | -0.09 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 32.8 | Lineup K 4.22
|
5.26 | 4.83 | -0.43 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SEA
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.36 | 4.78 | +0.42 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CIN
Score 44.0 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.67 | 4.78 | +0.11 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.67 | 4.72 | +0.05 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs SD
Score 40.8 | Lineup K 4.79
|
4.43 | 4.52 | +0.09 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs HOU
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.22 | 4.50 | +0.28 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIA
Score 36.8 | Lineup K 4.60
|
3.92 | 4.11 | +0.19 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 29.3 | Lineup K 3.77
|
3.69 | 3.66 | -0.03 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIL
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 4.00
|
3.12 | 3.35 | +0.23 | 42.3% | 25.7% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.