Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs STL
Score 72.2 | Lineup K 6.20
|
6.74 | 6.67 | -0.07 | 85.5% | 74.5% | 61.6% | 48.2% | 35.8% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 65.2 | Lineup K 6.25
|
6.49 | 6.48 | -0.01 | 84.2% | 72.6% | 59.2% | 45.7% | 33.5% |
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIL
Score 78.3 | Lineup K 6.40
|
6.16 | 6.39 | +0.23 | 83.6% | 71.7% | 58.1% | 44.5% | 32.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs ATL
Score 63.8 | Lineup K 5.38
|
6.67 | 6.29 | -0.38 | 82.8% | 70.6% | 56.8% | 43.2% | 31.1% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 5.60
|
6.23 | 6.09 | -0.14 | 81.2% | 68.3% | 54.2% | 40.5% | 28.6% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs PIT
Score 72.4 | Lineup K 5.85
|
5.89 | 5.98 | +0.09 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs BAL
Score 68.0 | Lineup K 6.34
|
5.55 | 5.91 | +0.36 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs BOS
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.83
|
5.68 | 5.75 | +0.07 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs COL
Score 64.3 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.41 | 5.58 | +0.17 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs SF
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 6.09
|
5.16 | 5.57 | +0.41 | 76.3% | 61.8% | 46.9% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs CWS
Score 61.5 | Lineup K 5.23
|
4.96 | 5.10 | +0.14 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CIN
Score 52.5 | Lineup K 5.76
|
4.70 | 5.08 | +0.38 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SEA
Score 44.5 | Lineup K 5.22
|
4.84 | 4.95 | +0.11 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs HOU
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 5.34
|
4.67 | 4.92 | +0.25 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs AZ
Score 47.5 | Lineup K 4.90
|
4.81 | 4.83 | +0.02 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATH
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.75 | 4.81 | +0.06 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 4.76
|
4.73 | 4.72 | -0.01 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 40.6 | Lineup K 4.42
|
4.86 | 4.67 | -0.19 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs DET
Score 40.9 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.40 | 4.56 | +0.16 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CHC
Score 22.1 | Lineup K 3.93
|
4.79 | 4.39 | -0.40 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs NYM
Score 26.1 | Lineup K 4.53
|
4.07 | 4.15 | +0.08 | 57.1% | 39.6% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CLE
Score 35.6 | Lineup K 3.53
|
4.00 | 3.79 | -0.21 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Brad Lord
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIA
Score 39.9 | Lineup K 4.06
|
3.23 | 3.49 | +0.26 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.