Mithrandir Metrics
CIN National League Central Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

78.5-83.5 with P10-P90 wins 69-88. 80.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.5-83.5
Live pace
75.0
Delta
-3.5
Record 75-87 Run diff -160 Generated 2026-10-15T11:48:51.812501+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason78.0
Current pace75.0
Rolling p5075.8
Observed weight73%
Rolling wins
67.3 71.3 75.8 80.3 84.3
MOVE -2.2 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.38
October path

Projection odds

Division12.5%
Playoffs24.0%
Pennant2.0%
World Series0.8%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.258
Rotation FIP4.29
Bullpen FIP4.38
Run diff-29.3
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-10-15.

SlotPlayerPAValue
Pitching staff

Rotation

Pitching staff

Bullpen

Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Steer, SpencerHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Dunn, BlakeHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Greene, HunterPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day