Mithrandir Metrics
CIN National League Central Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

78.5-83.5 with P10-P90 wins 69-88. 80.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.5-83.5
Live pace
76.9
Delta
-1.6
Record 65-72 Run diff -108 Generated 2026-08-31T11:46:09.602503+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason78.0
Current pace76.9
Rolling p5077.2
Observed weight70%
Rolling wins
68.2 72.5 77.2 81.9 86.2
MOVE -0.8 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.38
October path

Projection odds

Division12.5%
Playoffs24.0%
Pennant2.0%
World Series0.8%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.258
Rotation FIP4.29
Bullpen FIP4.38
Run diff-29.3
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-08-31; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-08-31.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CStephenson, Tyler--0.14
1BStewart, Sal--1.04
2BArroyo, Edwin----
SSMcLain, Matt--0.41
3BSuárez, Eugenio--3.83
LFBleday, Jj----
CFFriedl, Tj----
RFRodríguez, Héctor----
DHCruz, Elly De La--5.13
Pitching staff

Rotation

Pitching staff

Bullpen

Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Steer, SpencerHitterIL-10Injured 10-Day
Dunn, BlakeHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Hayes, Ke'BryanHitterIL-10Injured 10-Day
Greene, HunterPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Ashcraft, GrahamPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Player 682877HitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Marte, NoelviHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Phillips, ConnorPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Maxwell, ZachPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors