Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

AZ at KC

Pitcher 669203 vs Wacha, Michael · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean AZ or KC?

Mithrandir leans AZ over KC.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

53.4% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs AZ 4.4 · KC 4.3 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line AZ -1.5 · KC 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.3% · YRFI 50.7% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 27 Available in 27 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

27 matched rows

Total bases · AZ vs KC Ketel Marte Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.2% F-- V--

Model 34.2% Market 16.5% Model-market gap +17.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs KC Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.3% F-- V--

Model 35.3% Market 18.3% Model-market gap +16.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs KC Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.5% F-- V--

Model 35.5% Market 18.7% Model-market gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs AZ Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.2% F-- V--

Model 36.2% Market 19.8% Model-market gap +16.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs AZ Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.2% F-- V--

Model 38.2% Market 23.3% Model-market gap +14.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs KC Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.1% F-- V--

Model 39.1% Market 24.7% Model-market gap +14.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs AZ Salvador Perez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.2% F-- V--

Model 41.2% Market 27.8% Model-market gap +13.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs KC Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.6% F-- V--

Model 42.6% Market 30.3% Model-market gap +12.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs AZ Lane Thomas Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.1% F-- V--

Model 47.1% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs AZ Isaac Collins Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.8% F-- V--

Model 47.8% Market 37.7% Model-market gap +10.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs KC Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P63.2% F-- V--

Model 63.2% Market 56.5% Model-market gap +6.7 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · KC vs AZ Michael Wacha Under 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.4% F-- V--

Model 52.4% Market 46.8% Model-market gap +5.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · AZ vs KC Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.7% F13.2% V7.5%

Model 14.0% Market 9.3% Model-market gap +4.7 pts

Open board

Home runs · KC vs AZ Lane Thomas Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P9.9% F11.7% V18.4%

Model 17.2% Market 12.5% Model-market gap +4.7 pts

Open board

Home runs · KC vs AZ Vinnie Pasquantino Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.1% F16.1% V20.2%

Model 21.1% Market 16.7% Model-market gap +4.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · KC vs AZ Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.5% F13.2% V20.7%

Model 21.2% Market 16.9% Model-market gap +4.4 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.