Section III · Betting · 2026-07-27

BAL at DET

Bradish, Kyle vs Montero, Keider · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean BAL or DET?

Mithrandir leans DET over BAL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

58.9% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs BAL 4.5 · DET 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line BAL -1.5 · DET 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.6% · YRFI 51.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 28 Available in 28 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

28 matched rows

Home runs · DET vs BAL Colt Keith Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.0% F11.6% V9.5%

Model 17.0% Market 10.5% Model-market gap +6.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · BAL vs DET Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.7% F13.4% V15.3%

Model 22.5% Market 17.3% Model-market gap +5.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · DET vs BAL Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P9.6% F12.2% V10.9%

Model 13.4% Market 8.7% Model-market gap +4.7 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · DET vs BAL Keider Montero Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P69.8% F-- V46.1%

Model 69.8% Market 51.9% Provisional model gap +17.9 pts

Open board

Hits · DET vs BAL Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P88.2% F-- V--

Model 48.4% Market 31.2% Provisional model gap +17.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs DET Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.3% F-- V--

Model 33.3% Market 17.2% Provisional model gap +16.1 pts

Open board

Hits · DET vs BAL Colt Keith Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P83.3% F-- V--

Model 83.3% Market 67.7% Provisional model gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · DET vs BAL Riley Greene Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.8% F-- V--

Model 36.8% Market 22.2% Provisional model gap +14.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs DET Pete Alonso Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.0% F-- V--

Model 37.0% Market 22.7% Provisional model gap +14.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs DET Taylor Ward Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.2% F-- V--

Model 39.2% Market 25.6% Provisional model gap +13.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · DET vs BAL Colt Keith Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.7% F-- V--

Model 40.7% Market 27.8% Provisional model gap +12.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs DET Leody Taveras Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.6% F-- V--

Model 43.6% Market 31.7% Provisional model gap +11.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · DET vs BAL Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.1% F-- V--

Model 43.1% Market 31.2% Provisional model gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · DET vs BAL Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.5% F-- V--

Model 43.5% Market 31.7% Provisional model gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs DET Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.0% F-- V--

Model 44.0% Market 32.3% Provisional model gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · DET vs BAL Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.5% F-- V--

Model 45.5% Market 34.5% Provisional model gap +11.0 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.