Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
291
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 2
 13.0%Valinor 10.1%market +2.5pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 13.0
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
02
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 18.3%Valinor 15.6%market +2.0pp
P 15.8
F 13.6
V 18.3
4.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
03
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 18.4%Valinor 15.9%market +1.9pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 18.4
3.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
04
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 18.0%Valinor 15.5%market +1.9pp
P 15.6
F 11.4
V 18.0
6.6pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
05
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
 13.2%Valinor 11.0%market +1.8pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 16.5%Valinor 14.1%market +1.8pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 16.5
3.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
07
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 16.6%Valinor 14.4%market +1.7pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 16.6
2.0pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
08
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 11.3%Valinor 9.7%market +1.3pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 11.3
0.9pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
09
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 16.2%Valinor 14.4%market +1.2pp
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 16.2
1.6pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
10
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 17.4%Valinor 15.6%market +1.1pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 17.4
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
11
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
 14.0%Valinor 12.5%market +1.0pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
12
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 7
 10.8%Valinor 9.6%market +0.9pp
P 12.7
F 11.4
V 10.8
1.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
13
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 6
 10.0%Valinor 8.7%market +0.9pp
P 11.4
F 1.7
V 10.0
9.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
14
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 11.5%Valinor 10.5%market +0.6pp
P 14.9
F 8.6
V 11.5
6.3pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
15
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 10.8%Valinor 10.0%market +0.5pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 10.8
5.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
16
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
 14.3%Valinor 13.5%market +0.3pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 13.3%market +0.2pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
18
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 11.2%market +0.2pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 11.8
3.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
19
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 15.3%market -0.2pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 15.7
1.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
20
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 13.9%Valinor 14.1%market -0.2pp
P 12.8
F 11.6
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
21
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 14.2%market -0.2pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 14.5
3.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
22
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 12.6%Valinor 12.3%market -0.2pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 12.6
0.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
23
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 15.0%Valinor 15.1%market -0.6pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
24
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 15.3%Valinor 15.6%market -0.8pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 15.3
0.4pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
25
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 6
 11.8%Valinor 12.4%market -1.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 11.8
1.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
26
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 14.9%market -1.2pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
27
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 14.4%market -1.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.9
1.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
28
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
 13.7%Valinor 15.0%market -1.8pp
P 16.1
F 20.2
V 13.7
6.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
29
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 15.3%Valinor 16.7%market -1.9pp
P 18.8
F 22.3
V 15.3
6.9pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
30
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 12.8%Valinor 14.3%market -2.0pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 12.8
2.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
31
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
 9.4%Valinor 11.0%market -2.1pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 9.4
2.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
32
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 13.7%Valinor 15.3%market -2.1pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.6pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
33
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 11.1%Valinor 13.0%market -2.4pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 11.1
4.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
34
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 16.1%Valinor 18.2%market -2.8pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 16.1
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
35
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 10.5%Valinor 13.0%market -2.9pp
P 13.0
F 7.4
V 10.5
5.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
36
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 24.4%Valinor 28.4%market -5.0pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 24.4
9.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
37
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 22.2%market -8.2pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 14.8
1.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
38
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 15.1%Valinor 26.5%market -12.3pp
P 14.9
F 13.6
V 15.1
1.5pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
39
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
 12.8%Valinor 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 8.1
F 3.4
V 12.8
9.4pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 11.6%Valinor 7.9%market +3.5pp
P 10.1
F 8.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
41
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 1
 11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 8.9
F 8.6
V 11.4
2.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 10.1%Valinor 7.7%market +2.1pp
P 7.6
F 3.4
V 10.1
6.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 13.2%Valinor 10.9%market +1.8pp
P 12.4
F 3.4
V 13.2
9.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
44
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 19.6%Valinor 17.5%market +1.4pp
P 14.6
F 12.2
V 19.6
7.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
45
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 13.3%market +1.4pp
P 11.1
F 9.6
V 15.1
5.5pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
46
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
 19.6%Valinor 18.1%market +0.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.2
V 19.6
7.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
47
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 17.8%Valinor 16.4%market +0.7pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 17.8
2.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
48
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7
 9.5%Valinor 8.5%market +0.7pp
P 8.9
F 7.4
V 9.5
2.0pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
49
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 16.3%Valinor 15.2%market +0.4pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 16.3
5.2pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
50
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 7
 13.7%Valinor 13.4%market -0.2pp
P 14.3
F 11.4
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
51
Jorge Soler LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 17.0%Valinor 16.8%market -0.4pp
P 10.9
F 9.3
V 17.0
7.7pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
52
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 18.3%Valinor 18.4%market -0.7pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 18.3
3.4pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
53
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 16.2%Valinor 16.7%market -1.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 16.2
2.6pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
54
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
 10.1%Valinor 10.7%market -1.1pp
P 10.4
F 9.6
V 10.1
0.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
55
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 16.2%market -1.1pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
56
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 16.4%market -1.5pp
P 14.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.7pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
57
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
 15.3%Valinor 16.5%market -1.8pp
P 15.5
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
58
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 15.5%market -1.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 14.1
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
59
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4
 16.8%Valinor 18.2%market -2.1pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.8
3.4pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
60
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
 14.7%Valinor 16.2%market -2.1pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.5pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
61
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 16.8%Valinor 18.8%market -2.7pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
62
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 17.1%market -2.9pp
P 12.2
F 11.4
V 14.8
3.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
63
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 17.4%market -2.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
64
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 14.9%Valinor 17.4%market -3.1pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
65
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 15.2%Valinor 17.7%market -3.2pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
66
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 16.1%Valinor 18.8%market -3.4pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 16.1
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
67
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 17.1%market -3.8pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 13.9
1.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
68
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
 15.9%Valinor 19.1%market -3.9pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
69
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 17.7%market -4.2pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 14.2
2.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
70
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 19.1%market -5.0pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
71
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 15.9%Valinor 20.3%market -5.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 15.9
2.4pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
72
Shea Langeliers ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 15.4%Valinor 20.3%market -5.6pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
73
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 14.6%Valinor 20.3%market -6.4pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 14.6
2.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 15.4%Valinor 21.5%market -6.8pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.4
0.5pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
75
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 21.2%market -7.2pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 14.8
2.6pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
76
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 21.5%market -7.7pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
77
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 15.2%Valinor 22.4%market -8.1pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
78
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 16.8%Valinor 25.1%market -9.1pp
P 16.4
F 11.6
V 16.8
5.2pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
79
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 13.0%Valinor 22.7%market -10.5pp
P 13.3
F 11.4
V 13.0
1.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

776 sample flags
Status2306roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.