Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
291
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
22.3%Fangorn 16.4%market +5.8pp
P 18.8
F 22.3
V 15.3
6.9pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
02 IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 10.0%market +5.5pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 10.8
5.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
03 IN
TB vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
20.2%Fangorn 14.8%market +5.4pp
P 16.1
F 20.2
V 13.7
6.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
04 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.6pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 13.2
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05 IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
14.9%Fangorn 11.2%market +3.7pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 11.8
3.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06 IN
MIA vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 2
13.6%Fangorn 10.1%market +3.5pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 13.0
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
07 IN
MIL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 12.5%market +3.0pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 9.7%market +2.5pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 11.3
0.9pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
09 IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.5pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 11.1
4.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
10
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 13.3%market +2.3pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
11 IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 7
11.4%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.8pp
P 12.7
F 11.4
V 10.8
1.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
12 IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 14.0%market +1.5pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 14.5
3.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
13 IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
12.2%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.2pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 9.4
2.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
14 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 14.4%market +1.2pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 16.6
2.0pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
15 IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 14.4%market +1.2pp
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 16.2
1.6pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
16 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 14.1%market +0.8pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 16.5
3.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
17 IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 14.9%market +0.6pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
18 IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 13.7
2.6pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
19
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 15.4%market -0.5pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
20 IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.6pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 12.6
0.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
21 IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 6
12.2%Fangorn 12.9%market -0.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 11.8
1.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
22 IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -0.8pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 15.7
1.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
23 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 16.4%market -0.9pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 17.4
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
24 IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 14.4%market -1.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.9
1.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
25 IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.2pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 15.3
0.4pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
26 IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 16.7%market -1.8pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 18.4
3.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
27 IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
8.6%Fangorn 11.0%market -2.4pp
P 14.9
F 8.6
V 11.5
6.3pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
29 IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
11.6%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.5pp
P 12.8
F 11.6
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
30 IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
12.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.6pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 12.8
2.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
31 IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
13.6%Fangorn 16.4%market -2.8pp
P 15.8
F 13.6
V 18.3
4.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
32 IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 16.1
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
33 IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
11.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.8pp
P 15.6
F 11.4
V 18.0
6.6pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
34
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 6
7.4%Fangorn 13.4%market -6.0pp
P 13.0
F 7.4
V 10.5
5.5pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
35 IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 6
1.7%Fangorn 9.2%market -7.5pp
P 11.4
F 1.7
V 10.0
9.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
36 IN
MIA vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 1
8.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 8.9
F 8.6
V 11.4
2.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37 IN
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
8.6%Fangorn 7.9%market +0.7pp
P 10.1
F 8.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
38 IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 16.7%market -1.1pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
39 IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 16.8%market -1.3pp
P 14.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.7pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
40 IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7
7.4%Fangorn 9.0%market -1.5pp
P 8.9
F 7.4
V 9.5
2.0pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1015 avg 3 books
41
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
9.6%Fangorn 11.2%market -1.5pp
P 10.4
F 9.6
V 10.1
0.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 795 avg 3 books
42 IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 17.2%market -1.7pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 17.8
2.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
43 IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 7
11.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -2.5pp
P 14.3
F 11.4
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
44 IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
45 IN
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
13.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.4pp
P 15.5
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
46
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.6
V 16.2
2.6pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.8pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 16.3
5.2pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
48 IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 14.1
1.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
49 IN
SD vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 18.9%market -4.0pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 18.3
3.4pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
50 IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 5
9.6%Fangorn 13.9%market -4.3pp
P 11.1
F 9.6
V 15.1
5.5pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
51 IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.3pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
52 IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -4.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.5pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
NYY vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 17.9%market -4.5pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
54 IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
3.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 8.1
F 3.4
V 12.8
9.4pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
55 IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
3.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 7.6
F 3.4
V 10.1
6.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
56 IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.7pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
57 IN
KC vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.8
3.4pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
12.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.5pp
P 12.8
F 12.2
V 13.9
1.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
59 IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -6.0pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
60 IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
11.4%Fangorn 17.5%market -6.1pp
P 12.2
F 11.4
V 14.8
3.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
61 IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
12.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.1pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 14.2
2.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
62 IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
12.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.1pp
P 14.6
F 12.2
V 19.6
7.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63 IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 22.0%market -6.5pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.4
0.5pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
64 IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.2
V 19.6
7.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
65 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 16.1
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66 IN
TB vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 22.7%market -7.2pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 14.8
1.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
67 IN
HOU vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
13.6%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.2pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 15.9
2.4pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
68
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.4pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
69 IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.5pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
70 IN
LAA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
9.3%Fangorn 17.2%market -7.9pp
P 10.9
F 9.3
V 17.0
7.7pp 0.928xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
71 IN
MIN vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
3.4%Fangorn 11.4%market -8.0pp
P 12.4
F 3.4
V 13.2
9.7pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
72 IN
ATL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.6pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 14.6
2.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 IN
CIN vs STLDustin May · slot 3
12.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.5pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 14.8
2.6pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
74 IN
PIT vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
75 IN
BAL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 23.0%market -10.8pp
P 14.9
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
76 IN
CWS vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
11.4%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.8pp
P 13.3
F 11.4
V 13.0
1.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
77 IN
PHI vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
13.6%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.4pp
P 14.9
F 13.6
V 15.1
1.5pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
78 IN
SEA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
11.6%Fangorn 25.6%market -14.0pp
P 16.4
F 11.6
V 16.8
5.2pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
79 IN
LAD vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
14.9%Fangorn 29.0%market -14.1pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 24.4
9.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

776 sample flags
Status2306roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.