Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
67
Matched
267
Lineups
288
HR BOARD 2026-07-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 6
 22.3%Fangorn 9.1%market +13.1pp
P 15.2
F 22.3
V 10.8
11.5pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Rob Refsnyder SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
 22.3%Fangorn 12.2%market +10.1pp
P 14.5
F 22.3
V 11.6
10.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 695 avg 3 books
03
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 22.3%Fangorn 14.8%market +7.5pp
P 16.7
F 22.3
V 13.7
8.5pp 1.116xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
04
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 15.5%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.5pp
P 13.0
F 15.5
V 9.0
6.5pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 7
 12.2%Fangorn 8.5%market +3.7pp
P 11.3
F 12.2
V 8.6
3.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
06
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 13.6%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.6
V 9.5
4.1pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
07
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 11.6%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.9pp
P 9.6
F 11.6
V 10.7
2.0pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
08
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
 12.2%Fangorn 9.4%market +2.8pp
P 10.7
F 12.2
V 11.3
1.5pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
09
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 12.2%Fangorn 10.9%market +1.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.2
V 11.5
2.0pp 1.071xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
10
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 14.4%market +1.2pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 13.2
2.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 14.1%market +0.8pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 12.5
3.3pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
12
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.6pp
P 11.7
F 13.6
V 7.3
6.2pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
13
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.6pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
14
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.4pp
P 11.6
F 13.4
V 13.3
1.8pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 16.5
1.1pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
16
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.0
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
17
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
 11.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.6pp
P 9.8
F 11.4
V 18.3
8.5pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
18
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 16.5%market -1.6pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.9pp 1.071xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
19
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 12.6
F 12.2
V 20.7
8.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
21
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.8pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
22
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 11.7
1.7pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
23
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 16.5
1.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
24
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 13.6%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
25
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
26
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -2.6pp
P 14.2
F 14.9
V 16.1
2.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
27
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6
 9.6%Fangorn 12.5%market -2.9pp
P 11.3
F 9.6
V 9.8
1.7pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
28
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 13.5
3.1pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
29
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.1pp
P 17.5
F 15.5
V 13.5
4.1pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
30
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 13.1%market +2.4pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 12.1
3.8pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
31
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 12.2%Fangorn 10.0%market +2.2pp
P 10.1
F 12.2
V 9.3
2.9pp 0.963xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
32
Jahmai Jones DET
IN
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.9pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
2.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
33
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 5.9
F 7.4
V 9.4
3.5pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
34
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 5.3
F 7.4
V 10.6
5.3pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
35
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -1.4pp
P 11.5
F 14.9
V 11.9
3.4pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
36
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 11.6%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 9.7
F 11.6
V 11.3
1.9pp 0.963xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
37
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 12.2%Fangorn 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 11.7
F 12.2
V 9.6
2.7pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
38
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.2%market -1.7pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 12.4
3.1pp 0.963xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
39
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 17.0%Fangorn 19.2%market -2.3pp
P 15.4
F 17.0
V 14.5
2.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
40
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.4%market -2.5pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
41
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 15.1
0.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
42
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 5.2%Fangorn 8.0%market -2.8pp
P 6.1
F 5.2
V 13.1
7.9pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.1pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 12.2
1.1pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
44
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 20.0
5.5pp 1.053xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
45
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 13.0
2.5pp 0.947xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
46
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.8pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 16.1
1.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
47
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.1pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 13.6
1.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
48
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
49
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 14.9
0.2pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
50
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.8pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
51
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.9pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
52
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 20.0%market -5.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.9
V 22.1
7.5pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
53
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.3pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 22.0
10.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
54
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 13.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 15.0
2.0pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
55
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
 11.4%Fangorn 17.4%market -6.0pp
P 11.8
F 11.4
V 15.3
3.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
56
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.1pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
57
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 12.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.0pp
P 11.7
F 12.2
V 10.8
1.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
58
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 22.7%market -7.2pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 13.4
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
59
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 2.9
F 0.0
V 10.4
10.4pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
60
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 12.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.6pp
P 13.7
F 12.2
V 21.8
9.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
61
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 22.5%market -9.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 16.3
2.9pp 1.043xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
62
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 12.2%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 15.2
3.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
63
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 27.0%market -11.5pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 13.3
2.8pp 1.156xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
64
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2
 12.2%Fangorn 23.8%market -11.6pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 16.0
3.8pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
65
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 9.3%Fangorn 23.3%market -14.0pp
P 9.9
F 9.3
V 10.6
1.3pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
66
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 3
 11.6%Fangorn 25.6%market -14.0pp
P 15.0
F 11.6
V 14.2
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
67
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 29.8%market -14.3pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 18.0
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2412roster/transaction rows
Lineups288confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.