Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5 |
20.7%Valinor | 13.5%market | +6.7pp |
P
12.6
F
12.2
V
20.7
|
8.5pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Lane Thomas
KC
IN
|
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5 |
18.3%Valinor | 12.5%market | +5.3pp |
P
9.8
F
11.4
V
18.3
|
8.5pp | 1.053xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Steven Kwan
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2 |
10.7%Valinor | 8.7%market | +1.7pp |
P
9.6
F
11.6
V
10.7
|
2.0pp | 1.043xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2 |
11.3%Valinor | 9.4%market | +1.6pp |
P
10.7
F
12.2
V
11.3
|
1.5pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 930 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 6 |
10.8%Valinor | 9.1%market | +1.3pp |
P
15.2
F
22.3
V
10.8
|
11.5pp | 1.103xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 960 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
14.5%Valinor | 13.5%market | +0.6pp |
P
12.9
F
12.2
V
14.5
|
2.3pp | 1.032xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1 |
11.5%Valinor | 10.9%market | +0.2pp |
P
13.5
F
12.2
V
11.5
|
2.0pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5 |
13.3%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.2pp |
P
11.6
F
13.4
V
13.3
|
1.8pp | 1.043xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 09 | Lineup pending | TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 2 |
16.5%Valinor | 16.4%market | -0.5pp |
P
15.4
F
15.5
V
16.5
|
1.1pp | 1.103xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 7 |
8.6%Valinor | 8.7%market | -0.5pp |
P
11.3
F
12.2
V
8.6
|
3.7pp | 1.004xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1005 avg 3 books |
| 11 | IN | BOS vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3 |
15.5%Valinor | 16.0%market | -1.0pp |
P
15.8
F
14.9
V
15.5
|
0.9pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 505 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Rob Refsnyder
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2 |
11.6%Valinor | 12.2%market | -1.1pp |
P
14.5
F
22.3
V
11.6
|
10.7pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 690 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
George Springer
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1 |
16.5%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.2pp |
P
16.6
F
15.5
V
16.5
|
1.0pp | 1.103xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs WSHZack Littell · slot 4 |
16.1%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.6pp |
P
14.2
F
14.9
V
16.1
|
2.0pp | 1.103xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5 |
9.5%Valinor | 10.7%market | -1.7pp |
P
12.3
F
13.6
V
9.5
|
4.1pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 795 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1 |
14.1%Valinor | 15.2%market | -1.7pp |
P
15.6
F
15.5
V
14.1
|
1.6pp | 1.043xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2 |
13.7%Valinor | 15.0%market | -1.8pp |
P
16.7
F
22.3
V
13.7
|
8.5pp | 1.116xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5 |
13.2%Valinor | 14.5%market | -1.8pp |
P
15.9
F
15.5
V
13.2
|
2.7pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 565 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Zach Neto
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1 |
15.0%Valinor | 16.7%market | -2.3pp |
P
16.0
F
15.5
V
15.0
|
1.0pp | 1.004xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1 |
12.5%Valinor | 14.3%market | -2.3pp |
P
15.9
F
14.9
V
12.5
|
3.3pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 575 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6 |
9.0%Valinor | 11.0%market | -2.4pp |
P
13.0
F
15.5
V
9.0
|
6.5pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 770 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5 |
13.6%Valinor | 15.7%market | -2.7pp |
P
14.2
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
0.7pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 23 | IN | MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6 |
9.8%Valinor | 12.0%market | -2.7pp |
P
11.3
F
9.6
V
9.8
|
1.7pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2 |
14.3%Valinor | 16.5%market | -2.8pp |
P
16.1
F
14.9
V
14.3
|
1.8pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4 |
12.8%Valinor | 15.6%market | -3.3pp |
P
13.5
F
13.6
V
12.8
|
0.8pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 4 |
11.7%Valinor | 15.0%market | -3.9pp |
P
13.3
F
13.4
V
11.7
|
1.7pp | 0.947xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1 |
13.5%Valinor | 18.2%market | -5.3pp |
P
16.6
F
15.5
V
13.5
|
3.1pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 28 | IN | CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4 |
7.3%Valinor | 13.0%market | -6.2pp |
P
11.7
F
13.6
V
7.3
|
6.2pp | 0.953xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2 |
13.5%Valinor | 19.1%market | -6.3pp |
P
17.5
F
15.5
V
13.5
|
4.1pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1 |
18.0%Valinor | 29.3%market | -12.3pp |
P
14.7
F
15.5
V
18.0
|
3.4pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 31 | IN | CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3 |
10.6%Valinor | 22.7%market | -13.0pp |
P
9.9
F
9.3
V
10.6
|
1.3pp | 0.953xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 325 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
13.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | +5.1pp |
P
6.1
F
5.2
V
13.1
|
7.9pp | 1.032xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4 |
22.0%Valinor | 16.7%market | +4.6pp |
P
11.8
F
12.2
V
22.0
|
10.3pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
10.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.6pp |
P
5.3
F
7.4
V
10.6
|
5.3pp | 0.947xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1 |
22.1%Valinor | 18.9%market | +2.5pp |
P
14.6
F
14.9
V
22.1
|
7.5pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 410 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1 |
10.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.4pp |
P
2.9
F
0.0
V
10.4
|
10.4pp | 0.953xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 37 | IN | KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4 |
20.0%Valinor | 17.2%market | +2.2pp |
P
14.6
F
14.9
V
20.0
|
5.5pp | 1.053xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1 |
9.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.5pp |
P
5.9
F
7.4
V
9.4
|
3.5pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2 |
21.8%Valinor | 19.8%market | +1.2pp |
P
13.7
F
12.2
V
21.8
|
9.6pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 385 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2 |
14.2%Valinor | 13.8%market | -0.1pp |
P
17.0
F
15.5
V
14.2
|
2.9pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1 |
9.3%Valinor | 10.1%market | -1.3pp |
P
10.1
F
12.2
V
9.3
|
2.9pp | 0.963xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 850 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2 |
12.1%Valinor | 13.2%market | -1.6pp |
P
15.9
F
15.5
V
12.1
|
3.8pp | 0.947xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 630 avg 3 books |
| 43 | Lineup pending | MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3 |
11.3%Valinor | 12.5%market | -1.7pp |
P
9.7
F
11.6
V
11.3
|
1.9pp | 0.963xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1 |
15.3%Valinor | 16.8%market | -2.1pp |
P
11.8
F
11.4
V
15.3
|
3.9pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Riley Greene
DET
IN
|
DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4 |
15.1%Valinor | 16.8%market | -2.3pp |
P
13.3
F
14.9
V
15.1
|
1.8pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | DET vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5 |
15.1%Valinor | 17.1%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.5
F
14.9
V
15.1
|
0.6pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4 |
16.1%Valinor | 18.2%market | -2.8pp |
P
14.9
F
14.9
V
16.1
|
1.2pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 5 |
12.2%Valinor | 14.8%market | -3.1pp |
P
11.1
F
12.2
V
12.2
|
1.1pp | 0.947xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3 |
15.2%Valinor | 18.6%market | -4.0pp |
P
11.9
F
14.9
V
15.2
|
3.3pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 6 |
9.6%Valinor | 13.1%market | -4.1pp |
P
11.7
F
12.2
V
9.6
|
2.7pp | 0.947xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 51 | IN | NYY vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5 |
15.0%Valinor | 18.6%market | -4.2pp |
P
13.0
F
13.6
V
15.0
|
2.0pp | 0.953xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3 |
14.9%Valinor | 18.6%market | -4.3pp |
P
14.8
F
14.9
V
14.9
|
0.2pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Ben Rice
NYY
IN
|
NYY vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6 |
11.9%Valinor | 15.7%market | -4.3pp |
P
11.5
F
14.9
V
11.9
|
3.4pp | 0.953xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 54 | IN | LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4 |
14.0%Valinor | 17.9%market | -4.5pp |
P
12.5
F
12.2
V
14.0
|
1.8pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Kyle Manzardo
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3 |
13.1%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.6pp |
P
13.8
F
13.4
V
13.1
|
0.8pp | 1.043xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2 |
12.4%Valinor | 16.7%market | -4.9pp |
P
14.7
F
15.5
V
12.4
|
3.1pp | 0.963xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Mike Trout
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2 |
14.5%Valinor | 18.8%market | -5.0pp |
P
15.4
F
17.0
V
14.5
|
2.5pp | 1.004xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
13.0%Valinor | 18.2%market | -5.9pp |
P
14.3
F
15.5
V
13.0
|
2.5pp | 0.947xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
José Ramírez
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1 |
14.4%Valinor | 19.9%market | -6.2pp |
P
15.3
F
15.5
V
14.4
|
1.1pp | 1.043xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Jo Adell
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 19.1%market | -6.2pp |
P
13.8
F
15.5
V
13.6
|
1.9pp | 1.004xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3 |
16.3%Valinor | 22.0%market | -6.4pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
16.3
|
2.9pp | 1.043xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 340 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
15.2%Valinor | 21.5%market | -7.0pp |
P
13.3
F
12.2
V
15.2
|
3.0pp | 1.032xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 63 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2 |
16.0%Valinor | 23.3%market | -8.1pp |
P
13.9
F
12.2
V
16.0
|
3.8pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 315 avg 3 books |
| 64 |
Max Muncy
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6 |
10.8%Valinor | 18.8%market | -8.6pp |
P
11.7
F
12.2
V
10.8
|
1.4pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 65 | IN | TB vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4 |
13.4%Valinor | 22.2%market | -9.6pp |
P
14.7
F
15.5
V
13.4
|
2.2pp | 1.116xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 335 avg 3 books |
| 66 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs LADEric Lauer · slot 3 |
14.2%Valinor | 25.1%market | -11.8pp |
P
15.0
F
11.6
V
14.2
|
3.4pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 285 avg 3 books |
| 67 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3 |
13.3%Valinor | 26.5%market | -14.1pp |
P
16.1
F
15.5
V
13.3
|
2.8pp | 1.156xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
Data context
782 sample flagsStatus2412roster/transaction rows
Lineups288confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.