The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 259 qualified hitters (288+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Contreras, Willson in signal, the comp in amber.

BOS · bats R · 534 PA

Ranked comps for Contreras, Willson

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Canzone, Dominic SEA · L · 439 PA 0.73 Sweet-spot rateHard-hit rateIsolated power Ground-ball rate +1.1zSwing length -1.1zWalk rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Mayo, Coby BAL · R · 380 PA 0.70 Whiff rateIn-zone contactBarrel rate Fly-ball rate +1.2zStrikeout rate +1.2zWalk rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Montgomery, Colson CWS · L · 569 PA 0.69 Bat speedPull rateSweet-spot rate Strikeout rate +1.5zGround-ball rate -1.1zFly-ball rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 557 PA 0.67 Oppo ratePull rateBarrel rate Max exit velocity -1.3zBat speed -1.2zChase rate -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Goodman, Hunter COL · R · 513 PA 0.65 Sprint speedMax exit velocityxwOBA on contact Swing length -1.1zIsolated power +1.1zStrikeout rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L · 594 PA 0.64 Pull rateOppo rateSwing length Avg exit velocity +1.5zSweet-spot rate +1.4zHard-hit rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Burger, Jake TEX · R · 539 PA 0.63 Sprint speedBarrel rateFly-ball rate Sweet-spot rate -1.4zxwOBA on contact -1.2zWalk rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Caglianone, Jac KC · L · 501 PA 0.62 Max exit velocitySweet-spot rateIn-zone contact Walk rate -1.7zAvg exit velocity +1.4zHard-hit rate +1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Harper, Bryce PHI · L · 598 PA 0.62 Isolated powerSprint speedHard-hit rate Walk rate +1.9zSwing length -1.2zPull rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Carroll, Corbin AZ · L · 602 PA 0.59 Barrel ratePull rateIsolated power Sprint speed +1.8zMax exit velocity -1.1zSweet-spot rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Langeliers, Shea ATH · R · 429 PA 0.59 Isolated powerIn-zone contactxwOBA on contact Pull rate -1.7zSwing length -1.4zOppo rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Hernández, Heriberto MIA · R · 404 PA 0.58 Walk ratexwOBA on contactPull rate Max exit velocity -1.7zChase rate -1.5zSprint speed +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.