Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PHI | 6.01 | 23.2% | 24.1% | 22.8% | 16.2 | 5 | 2 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIL | 5.88 | 22.8% | 23.2% | 22.8% | 16.2 | 6 | 2 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 5.79 | 22.0% | 21.9% | 22.8% | 15.6 | 5 | 2 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 5.65 | 23.3% | 24.3% | 22.8% | 15.8 | 6 | 2 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATL | 5.60 | 24.3% | 26.4% | 22.8% | 15.6 | 6 | 2 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SD | 5.54 | 24.2% | 26.1% | 22.8% | 15.9 | 6 | 2 |
Michael Kopech
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BAL | 5.54 | 21.8% | 21.5% | 22.8% | 15.5 | 6 | 2 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAA | 5.41 | 23.9% | 25.5% | 22.8% | 15.3 | 5 | 2 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs COL | 5.32 | 21.5% | 20.8% | 22.8% | 15.4 | 6 | 2 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs KC | 5.31 | 23.9% | 25.5% | 22.8% | 16.0 | 5 | 2 |
Kyle Gibson
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CWS | 5.30 | 20.4% | 18.9% | 22.8% | 16.2 | 5 | 3 |
Jon Gray
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 5.22 | 22.4% | 22.6% | 22.8% | 15.9 | 6 | 2 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYY | 5.21 | 24.2% | 26.1% | 22.8% | 15.6 | 6 | 2 |
Braxton Garrett
Probable starter
|
MIA vs AZ | 5.06 | 23.6% | 25.2% | 22.8% | 15.2 | 6 | 1 |
Chad Kuhl
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CLE | 4.99 | 20.5% | 18.9% | 22.8% | 15.3 | 6 | 2 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs SEA | 4.98 | 22.1% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 15.2 | 6 | 2 |
Anthony DeSclafani
Probable starter
|
SF vs DET | 4.90 | 23.3% | 24.3% | 22.8% | 16.0 | 6 | 2 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 4.87 | 21.7% | 21.1% | 22.8% | 15.1 | 6 | 2 |
Tyler Anderson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 4.85 | 20.8% | 19.4% | 22.8% | 15.5 | 7 | 2 |
Michael Grove
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CHC | 4.75 | 21.9% | 21.7% | 22.8% | 14.5 | 6 | 2 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAD | 4.71 | 21.9% | 21.5% | 22.8% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIA | 4.67 | 19.5% | 16.8% | 22.8% | 15.6 | 6 | 2 |
Domingo Germán
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIN | 4.57 | 22.4% | 22.5% | 22.8% | 14.6 | 5 | 2 |
Roansy Contreras
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 4.35 | 19.2% | 16.3% | 22.8% | 15.0 | 5 | 2 |
Shintaro Fujinami
Probable starter
|
OAK vs NYM | 4.32 | 20.3% | 18.3% | 22.8% | 14.3 | 7 | 2 |
Carlos Carrasco
Probable starter
|
NYM vs OAK | 4.21 | 19.6% | 16.9% | 22.8% | 14.9 | 6 | 2 |
Matt Strahm
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CIN | 4.21 | 23.2% | 24.2% | 22.8% | 15.0 | 5 | 2 |
Zach Plesac
Probable starter
|
CLE vs WSH | 4.21 | 21.3% | 20.4% | 22.8% | 14.7 | 6 | 2 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
DET vs SF | 4.20 | 22.2% | 22.2% | 22.8% | 15.4 | 5 | 0 |
Calvin Faucher
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 3.76 | 22.2% | 22.2% | 22.8% | 15.4 | 5 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.