Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 5.95 | 29.9% | 37.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAA | 5.29 | 24.8% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYY | 5.09 | 22.4% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TEX | 5.00 | 22.3% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.91 | 23.8% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs ATL | 4.89 | 25.0% | 28.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs HOU | 4.78 | 22.9% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 10 | 0 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs ATH | 4.71 | 20.2% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Cody Ponce
Probable starter
|
TOR vs COL | 4.70 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TB | 4.51 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BAL | 4.40 | 21.9% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 4.33 | 22.4% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CHC | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Justin Verlander
Probable starter
|
DET vs AZ | 4.24 | 20.6% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs LAD | 4.21 | 22.5% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Lance McCullers Jr.
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BOS | 4.17 | 22.7% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs DET | 4.14 | 22.3% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 3.91 | 23.8% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SEA | 3.91 | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYM | 3.80 | 21.3% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 3.78 | 21.3% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 3.76 | 18.1% | 15.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CWS | 3.69 | 18.6% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIA | 3.63 | 19.1% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIL | 3.62 | 19.1% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CLE | 3.56 | 18.7% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs STL | 3.41 | 18.9% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Taijuan Walker
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 3.18 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs TOR | 2.77 | 16.8% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.