Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SD | 6.77 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TOR | 6.52 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CLE | 5.90 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs ATH | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Andrew Morris
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kai-Wei Teng
Probable starter
|
HOU vs PIT | 4.64 | 25.0% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.45 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 4.34 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Coleman Crow
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SF | 4.28 | 21.5% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 1 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs HOU | 4.23 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CHC | 4.14 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 3.91 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Lucas Giolito
Probable starter
|
SD vs PHI | 3.88 | 20.2% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYY | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 3.42 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 3.40 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.