Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CWS | 6.31 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs CHC | 5.20 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYM | 5.08 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 5.05 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs SEA | 4.95 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 4.89 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SF | 4.79 | 21.5% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs DET | 4.71 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs WSH | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TEX | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TB | 4.36 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CLE | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs PHI | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SD | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 3.90 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIA | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATL | 3.90 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 3.85 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs LAA | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIL | 3.80 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs AZ | 3.77 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs COL | 3.59 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PIT | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 3.29 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.