Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAD | 6.77 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 5.92 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SEA | 5.86 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PIT | 5.12 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CIN | 4.94 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs DET | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Kohl Drake
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs STL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.63 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SD | 4.62 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIA | 4.62 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs CHC | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Kendry Rojas
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CWS | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYY | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs SF | 4.13 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 4.13 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs KC | 4.02 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs NYM | 3.96 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs AZ | 3.85 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TEX | 3.84 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIL | 3.71 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs LAA | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PHI | 3.40 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs HOU | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs ATL | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 3.00 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.