Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 6.94 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs NYM | 6.36 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAD | 6.22 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs STL | 5.93 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 5.66 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CIN | 5.63 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CWS | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIL | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs CHC | 5.41 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PIT | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SD | 5.24 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Ronel Blanco
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIA | 5.20 | 23.3% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs SF | 4.98 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PHI | 4.70 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 4.65 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs DET | 4.63 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYY | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs KC | 4.45 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs AZ | 4.30 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 4.05 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.05 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Jp Sears
Probable starter
|
SD vs ATL | 3.78 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 3.64 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SEA | 3.63 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 3.47 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TEX | 3.27 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs HOU | 3.19 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs LAA | 3.19 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.