Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 6.56 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 6.07 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Hunter Greene
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 5.89 | 28.1% | 31.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs LAD | 5.89 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 5.75 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 5.71 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAA | 5.58 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYM | 5.49 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 5.14 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PHI | 4.87 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BAL | 4.86 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 4.71 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.68 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SD | 4.66 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Kendry Rojas
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tim Mayza
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYY | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TB | 4.59 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs WSH | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs AZ | 4.15 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 4.05 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs CLE | 3.85 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs COL | 3.77 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs ATL | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SF | 3.55 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIL | 3.42 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Brady Basso
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIN | 3.35 | 20.9% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIA | 3.10 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.