Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs COL | 6.36 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYY | 6.22 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 6.12 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs LAD | 5.92 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SF | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs ATL | 5.03 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 4.98 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 4.95 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Ronel Blanco
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 4.82 | 23.3% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PHI | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYM | 4.70 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.63 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TB | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIN | 4.30 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs CLE | 4.28 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kohl Drake
Probable starter
|
AZ vs WSH | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.25 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BAL | 4.24 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 3.75 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIL | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Carson Whisenhunt
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAA | 3.66 | 19.4% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 3.65 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 3.63 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SD | 3.56 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs AZ | 3.38 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIA | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.