Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CHC | 6.56 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 6.22 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CLE | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.98 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs TOR | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Kohl Drake
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CWS | 4.63 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs SEA | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BOS | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs DET | 4.43 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYM | 4.15 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATH | 4.01 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 3.97 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs LAA | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BAL | 3.55 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Mason Barnett
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CIN | 3.43 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 3.19 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 3.00 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.