Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TOR | 6.44 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAD | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 5.24 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 5.12 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs STL | 5.12 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs DET | 5.09 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYM | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 4.77 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs LAA | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CWS | 4.68 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BAL | 4.58 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SF | 4.52 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 4.28 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 4.26 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
TOR vs HOU | 4.25 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs SEA | 4.21 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CIN | 4.21 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATH | 4.11 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CLE | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 3.90 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CHC | 3.89 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BOS | 3.67 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs COL | 3.47 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs TB | 3.41 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Carson Whisenhunt
Probable starter
|
SF vs TEX | 3.28 | 19.4% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYY | 2.89 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.