Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TOR | 6.77 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TB | 6.50 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BAL | 5.75 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs HOU | 5.58 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PHI | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs KC | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATL | 5.50 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Ronel Blanco
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SD | 4.82 | 23.3% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs MIL | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TEX | 4.65 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jt Brubaker
Probable starter
|
SF vs DET | 4.23 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.21 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 4.05 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYY | 4.02 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs SEA | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs CHC | 3.87 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 3.85 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIN | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PIT | 3.71 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs COL | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYM | 3.56 | 20.8% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 13.8 | 10 | 3 |
Chase Petty
Probable starter
|
CIN vs WSH | 3.50 | 21.4% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAA | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CIN | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 3.42 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs STL | 3.42 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
George Klassen
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIA | 3.31 | 21.2% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 2 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs SF | 3.10 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.