Mithrandir Metrics
PIT National League Central Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Pittsburgh Pirates

80.2-81.8 with P10-P90 wins 71-90. 80.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
80.2-81.8
Live pace
82.0
Delta
+1.8
Record 82-80 Run diff 28 Generated 2026-10-20T11:50:28.634887+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason80.0
Current pace82.0
Rolling p5081.5
Observed weight73%
Rolling wins
72.6 76.8 81.5 86.1 90.3
MOVE +1.5 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.40
October path

Projection odds

Division15.5%
Playoffs29.3%
Pennant2.8%
World Series1.2%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.266
Rotation FIP4.07
Bullpen FIP4.40
Run diff-12.2
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-10-20.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CDavis, Henry362-0.57
1BHorwitz, Spencer4450.58
2BLowe, Brandon5334.63
SSTriolo, Jared445-0.20
3BGonzales, Nick454-0.39
LFReynolds, Bryan6064.40
CFCruz, Oneil5413.84
RFO'Hearn, Ryan5394.41
DHMangum, Jake419-0.82
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Keller, MitchPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day