Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
153
Lineups
108
HR BOARD 2026-06-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 9.3%market +8.6pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 11.7%market +5.5pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
04
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +5.4pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
05
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.9pp
P 18.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.3pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +4.7pp
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +4.4pp
P 13.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
08
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 10.1%market +4.1pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
09
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 13.9%market +4.0pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 15.7%Fangorn 12.4%market +3.3pp
P 17.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
11
Wyatt Langford TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 14.4%market +2.8pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
12
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 15.6%market +2.3pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
14
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
 11.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.6pp
P 11.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.0pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
15
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 15.6%market +1.6pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
16
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 15.9%market +1.3pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
17
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 16.9%market +1.1pp
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
18
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 17.5%market +0.5pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
19
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.3pp
P 20.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
9.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
20
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7
 13.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.5pp
P 17.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
21
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 11.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.4pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 11.4
2.4pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
22
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 15.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +8.0pp
P 13.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 10.0%market +4.2pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
24
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6
 11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.7pp
P 9.9
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.5pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 19.6%Fangorn 16.4%market +3.1pp
P 21.3
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.7pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
26
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.7pp
P 14.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
27
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
28
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 15.8%market +1.5pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
29
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
30
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 19.6%Fangorn 18.9%market +0.7pp
P 20.8
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
31
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -0.6pp
P 13.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
32
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
 11.1%Fangorn 13.1%market -2.0pp
P 13.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
2.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
33
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -2.3pp
P 16.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
34
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -2.9pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
35
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 21.1%market -3.1pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
36
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 7.1
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
37
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 6.8
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.0pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -4.0pp
P 15.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
39
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.1pp
P 18.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
40
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
41
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 24.1%market -6.2pp
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
42
Victor Scott II STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 7.7
F 0.0
V 0.0
7.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 29.0%market -11.8pp
P 17.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books
44
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.8pp
P 14.8
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.4pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status1566roster/transaction rows
Lineups108confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.