Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYY | 6.78 | 29.6% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 1 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BOS | 6.63 | 28.6% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 5 | 1 |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TB | 5.72 | 28.5% | 30.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 5.68 | 24.6% | 25.1% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 6 | 1 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs LAD | 5.64 | 24.3% | 26.0% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 5 | 1 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SEA | 5.31 | 22.3% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 6 | 1 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CLE | 5.00 | 28.1% | 30.8% | 22.4% | 12.4 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs DET | 4.85 | 20.9% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 4.69 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
José Suarez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs ATH | 4.67 | 23.0% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CHC | 4.56 | 22.6% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 5 | 1 |
Pj Poulin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIL | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 4.29 | 24.2% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Kodai Senga
Probable starter
|
NYM vs STL | 4.25 | 22.9% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs COL | 4.21 | 22.5% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs AZ | 4.19 | 21.1% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 0 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAA | 4.09 | 19.5% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Williamson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 4.02 | 21.9% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs ATL | 3.87 | 20.5% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs HOU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 16.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs TOR | 3.81 | 20.3% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYM | 3.63 | 17.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CWS | 3.58 | 17.7% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 3.48 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Zach Eflin
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TEX | 3.42 | 18.7% | 16.2% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIA | 3.08 | 17.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.