Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SF | 6.50 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BAL | 6.44 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAD | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Hunter Greene
Probable starter
|
CIN vs COL | 5.89 | 28.1% | 31.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PHI | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYY | 5.49 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATL | 5.38 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs PIT | 5.35 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIN | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CLE | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs SEA | 5.20 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 4.89 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TEX | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAA | 4.77 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.68 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CHC | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Alan Rangel
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYM | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs WSH | 4.59 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs STL | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs SD | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs MIL | 4.28 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs DET | 3.93 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs CIN | 3.80 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 3.78 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATH | 3.77 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIA | 3.77 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 3.67 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 3.29 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs KC | 3.04 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs AZ | 2.89 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.