Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 6.39 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CLE | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs DET | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 5.25 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 5.12 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Eddy Yean
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TOR | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 4.40 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs AZ | 4.28 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.24 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 4.23 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 4.21 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 4.09 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PIT | 3.98 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.83 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CIN | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SF | 3.59 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs BAL | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs WSH | 3.29 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 3.10 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.