Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CLE | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 6.14 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CIN | 5.52 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 5.38 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 5.08 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 5.08 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 4.93 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Caleb Ferguson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CLE | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs WSH | 4.58 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAD | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 4.53 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs AZ | 4.52 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SF | 4.46 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 4.45 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
BAL vs DET | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs BAL | 4.40 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 4.31 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PIT | 4.08 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 3.90 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CIN | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SEA | 3.78 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TOR | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 2.84 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.