Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 5.89 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 5.20 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 4.87 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAD | 4.71 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 4.34 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Cole Winn
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 4.28 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Yohan Ramírez
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jp Sears
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 4.16 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 4.11 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 4.05 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.90 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Mason Barnett
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 3.81 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SEA | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 3.19 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.