Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs STL | 6.94 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 6.44 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Hunter Greene
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 6.27 | 28.1% | 31.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 5.38 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs NYY | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 5.24 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs AZ | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Kodai Senga
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 4.83 | 24.5% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CHC | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs DET | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SEA | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Bradgley Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Edgardo Henriquez
Probable starter
|
LAD vs BOS | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs COL | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIN | 4.43 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CLE | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAD | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIL | 3.93 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs BAL | 3.88 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs CWS | 3.85 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.77 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs PHI | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAA | 3.47 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs KC | 3.41 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Carson Whisenhunt
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 3.28 | 19.4% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TB | 3.27 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 3.19 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs TOR | 3.19 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Holton
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATH | 2.68 | 23.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 11.3 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.