Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs BAL | 6.53 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 6.14 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 6.04 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CIN | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.94 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 4.84 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs AZ | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BOS | 4.59 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs WSH | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 4.36 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 4.36 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs DET | 4.34 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 4.31 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CLE | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Thomas Pannone
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SF | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SEA | 4.27 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.09 | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATH | 4.04 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PIT | 4.02 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 3.99 | 21.9% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TOR | 3.96 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAD | 3.90 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Casey Legumina
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 3.74 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Hart
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 3.36 | 19.2% | 16.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.