Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIN | 6.50 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs STL | 5.92 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs BOS | 5.87 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs BAL | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 5.21 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Ronel Blanco
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 5.20 | 23.3% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CHC | 5.12 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs PHI | 5.03 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs NYY | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs AZ | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATH | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SEA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs CWS | 4.28 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kohl Drake
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CLE | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs TOR | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs DET | 4.23 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 4.09 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 4.02 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 4.01 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Jordan Hicks
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TB | 3.88 | 21.1% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs KC | 3.80 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs COL | 3.75 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAD | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAA | 3.40 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.00 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Brent Suter
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIL | 2.86 | 20.4% | 16.4% | 22.4% | 13.8 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.