Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
72
Matched
231
Lineups
198
HR BOARD 2026-07-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +5.8pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 9.7
5.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
 12.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.5pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 8.2
4.0pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 11.3%market +3.6pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 11.4
3.5pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
04
Ryan Mountcastle BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
 13.4%Fangorn 10.4%market +3.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.0pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
05
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 12.7%market +2.8pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.8
2.7pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
06
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.5pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 10.2
6.5pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
07
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.5pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.6pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
08
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 12.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.4pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 11.5
1.0pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
09
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.4pp
P 12.0
F 12.2
V 10.3
1.9pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
10
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 6
 15.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.1pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 11.6
3.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
11
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 13.6%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.8pp
P 16.0
F 13.6
V 11.8
4.2pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
12
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 13.9%market +1.6pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.1pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
13
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 14.2%market +1.3pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
14
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 12.4%market +1.2pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 11.3
3.2pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
15
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 6
 11.6%Fangorn 10.9%market +0.7pp
P 12.2
F 11.6
V 11.1
1.1pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
16
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending Triple
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 13.9
2.4pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
17
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 13.7
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
18
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.6pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 13.5
1.4pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
19
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 14.6
1.4pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
21
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 11.6%Fangorn 12.6%market -1.0pp
P 12.9
F 11.6
V 12.4
1.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
22
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 14.4%market -1.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.0pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
23
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 12.2%Fangorn 13.3%market -1.1pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 13.3
1.8pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
24
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.2pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.9pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
25
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 14.5
3.3pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
26
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 11.4%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.7pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 12.3
2.4pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
27
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 9.6%Fangorn 11.6%market -1.9pp
P 16.4
F 9.6
V 10.5
6.7pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
28
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.0pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 13.1
1.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
29
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.7pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
30
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 7.4%Fangorn 13.4%market -6.0pp
P 12.9
F 7.4
V 12.1
5.5pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
31
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
 13.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.9pp
P 11.7
F 13.6
V 9.5
4.1pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Jahmai Jones DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.9pp
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 14.1
2.4pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
33
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 9.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.6pp
P 10.4
F 9.3
V 13.7
4.4pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 16.3%market -0.7pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 13.5
2.5pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
35
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 14.3
1.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
36
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 16.5%market -1.6pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
37
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 17.4%market -1.9pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 12.8
3.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
38
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 6
 12.2%Fangorn 14.3%market -2.1pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 11.3
1.8pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
39
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
40
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 16.5
0.9pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
41
Willson Contreras BOS
IN Triple
BOS vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.5pp
P 15.5
F 13.4
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
42
Hunter Goodman COL
IN Triple
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 14.1
0.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
43
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.2pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 16.2
1.4pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
44
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.3pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.2
1.3pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
45
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.7pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
46
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 5
 9.3%Fangorn 13.0%market -3.7pp
P 10.5
F 9.3
V 15.6
6.3pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
47
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 13.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 15.7
F 13.6
V 14.3
2.1pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
48
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 16.6
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
49
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 15.5
1.0pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
50
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 19.8%market -4.3pp
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 13.9
2.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
51
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.8pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
52
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 15.3
0.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 3.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 7.3
F 3.4
V 9.8
6.4pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
54
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 3.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 7.7
F 3.4
V 9.8
6.3pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
55
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.9pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
2.8pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
56
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 17.4%market -5.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 14.9
2.7pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
57
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 12.2%Fangorn 17.4%market -5.2pp
P 14.3
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
58
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.3pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
59
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN Triple
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.3pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 14.1
1.9pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
60
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 1
 12.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.5pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
61
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 17.0
4.8pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
62
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 12.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.1pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.5pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
 11.6%Fangorn 18.2%market -6.6pp
P 13.1
F 11.6
V 14.7
3.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
64
Matt Olson ATL
IN Triple
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.8pp
P 16.7
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
65
Max Muncy LAD
IN Triple
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6
 12.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.0pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 12.0
2.0pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66
Junior Caminero TB
IN Triple
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
67
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 4.9
F 0.0
V 7.8
7.8pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
68
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 12.2%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.8pp
P 14.8
F 12.2
V 14.9
2.7pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
69
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 12.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.5pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 15.5
3.3pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 23.8%market -10.4pp
P 16.2
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.8pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
71
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 11.6%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.7pp
P 14.4
F 11.6
V 12.0
2.8pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
72
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 29.8%market -14.3pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 17.4
1.9pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1880roster/transaction rows
Lineups198confirmed starters
Triple7cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.