Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
72
Matched
231
Lineups
198
HR BOARD 2026-07-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Ryan Mountcastle BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
 14.1%Valinor 10.4%market +3.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.0pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
02
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 11.5%Valinor 9.8%market +1.3pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 11.5
1.0pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
03
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 13.5%market +1.2pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 13.5%Valinor 12.3%market +0.8pp
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 13.5
1.4pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
05
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 14.1%Valinor 13.0%market +0.6pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 14.1
1.6pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 14.6%Valinor 13.5%market +0.6pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 14.6
1.4pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
07
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 9.7%Valinor 9.1%market +0.3pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 9.7
5.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
08
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
 8.2%Valinor 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 8.2
4.0pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
09
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 10.3%Valinor 9.8%market +0.1pp
P 12.0
F 12.2
V 10.3
1.9pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
10
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 13.3%market -0.1pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 13.3
1.8pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
11
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 12.6%market -0.1pp
P 12.9
F 11.6
V 12.4
1.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
12
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 6
 11.1%Valinor 10.9%market -0.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.6
V 11.1
1.1pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
13
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
 11.4%Valinor 11.8%market -0.4pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 11.4
3.5pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
14
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 14.4%market -0.5pp
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
15
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 11.8%market -0.5pp
P 16.0
F 13.6
V 11.8
4.2pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
16
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
 12.8%Valinor 13.3%market -0.5pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.8
2.7pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
17
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 12.3%Valinor 13.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 12.3
2.4pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
18
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 14.4%market -0.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.0pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
19
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 10.5%Valinor 11.1%market -1.0pp
P 16.4
F 9.6
V 10.5
6.7pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
20
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
 13.1%Valinor 13.6%market -1.0pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 13.1
1.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
21
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 12.1%Valinor 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 12.9
F 7.4
V 12.1
5.5pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
22
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 11.3%Valinor 13.0%market -1.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 11.3
3.2pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
23
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending Triple
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 13.9%Valinor 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 16.3
F 15.5
V 13.9
2.4pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
24
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 14.3%Valinor 15.7%market -2.0pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.9pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
25
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 13.8%Valinor 15.6%market -2.3pp
P 13.7
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
26
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 14.5%Valinor 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
27
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 6
 11.6%Valinor 13.6%market -2.5pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 11.6
3.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
28
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 16.5%market -2.6pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 14.5
3.3pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
29
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 11.7%Valinor 14.1%market -2.9pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.1pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
30
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 10.2%Valinor 13.0%market -3.3pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 10.2
6.5pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
31
Junior Caminero TB
IN Triple
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
 13.4%Valinor 21.5%market -8.8pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
32
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 17.4%Valinor 29.3%market -12.9pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 17.4
1.9pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
33
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 13.7%Valinor 7.7%market +5.7pp
P 10.4
F 9.3
V 13.7
4.4pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 5
 15.6%Valinor 12.5%market +2.6pp
P 10.5
F 9.3
V 15.6
6.3pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
35
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 9.8%Valinor 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 7.3
F 3.4
V 9.8
6.4pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 9.8%Valinor 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 7.7
F 3.4
V 9.8
6.3pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
 9.5%Valinor 7.7%market +1.5pp
P 11.7
F 13.6
V 9.5
4.1pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
 7.8%Valinor 7.7%market -0.2pp
P 4.9
F 0.0
V 7.8
7.8pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39
Jahmai Jones DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 13.8%market -0.2pp
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 14.1
2.4pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
40
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 4
 17.0%Valinor 17.5%market -1.1pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 17.0
4.8pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
41
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 3
 16.5%Valinor 17.1%market -1.2pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 16.5
0.9pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
42
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 1
 16.4%Valinor 17.1%market -1.2pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
43
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 16.8%market -1.6pp
P 14.3
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.6pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
44
Willson Contreras BOS
IN Triple
BOS vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 13.8%Valinor 15.3%market -2.1pp
P 15.5
F 13.4
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
45
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 4
 14.9%Valinor 16.8%market -2.4pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 14.9
2.7pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
46
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 17.1%market -2.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.8pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
47
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 16.4%market -2.6pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 14.3
1.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
48
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 16.2%Valinor 18.2%market -2.7pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 16.2
1.4pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
49
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 15.7%market -2.8pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 13.5
2.5pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
50
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 13.0%Valinor 15.3%market -2.9pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 13.0
0.8pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
51
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 6
 11.3%Valinor 13.8%market -3.0pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 11.3
1.8pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
52
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 16.1%market -3.3pp
P 13.2
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
53
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 12.2%Valinor 15.0%market -3.3pp
P 13.4
F 12.2
V 12.2
1.3pp 0.865xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
54
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 14.3%Valinor 17.1%market -3.4pp
P 15.7
F 13.6
V 14.3
2.1pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
55
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN Triple
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 14.1%Valinor 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 14.1
1.9pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
56
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 17.7%market -3.6pp
P 13.1
F 11.6
V 14.7
3.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
57
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 17.2%market -3.7pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
58
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 18.6%market -3.8pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 15.5
1.0pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
59
Hunter Goodman COL
IN Triple
COL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 17.4%market -4.0pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 14.1
0.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
60
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 15.3%Valinor 18.8%market -4.1pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 15.3
0.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
61
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 15.1%Valinor 18.6%market -4.2pp
P 16.6
F 14.9
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
62
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 14.3%Valinor 17.9%market -4.2pp
P 14.7
F 12.2
V 14.3
2.5pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
63
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 12.8%Valinor 16.8%market -4.6pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 12.8
3.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
64
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
 13.9%Valinor 19.3%market -6.1pp
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 13.9
2.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
65
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 14.9%Valinor 20.5%market -6.3pp
P 14.8
F 12.2
V 14.9
2.7pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
66
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 19.9%market -6.5pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
2.8pp 1.103xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
67
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 21.2%market -6.5pp
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 15.5
3.3pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
68
Matt Olson ATL
IN Triple
ATL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 15.0%Valinor 21.2%market -7.0pp
P 16.7
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
69
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 20.3%market -7.2pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
70
Max Muncy LAD
IN Triple
LAD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6
 12.0%Valinor 18.8%market -7.4pp
P 14.0
F 12.2
V 12.0
2.0pp 1.124xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
71
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 16.1%Valinor 23.3%market -8.0pp
P 16.2
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.8pp 1.093xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
72
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 12.0%Valinor 22.7%market -11.5pp
P 14.4
F 11.6
V 12.0
2.8pp 1.166xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1880roster/transaction rows
Lineups198confirmed starters
Triple7cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.