Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 6.04 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs COL | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs LAA | 5.87 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SD | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CLE | 5.24 | 25.2% | 29.2% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Strider
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PIT | 5.22 | 23.6% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SF | 5.14 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.12 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 4.79 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.62 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATL | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TEX | 4.59 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs WSH | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Kade Morris
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CWS | 4.26 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs CHC | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYM | 4.08 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs DET | 4.05 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TB | 3.92 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.83 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIA | 3.78 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 3.75 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs AZ | 3.58 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs LAD | 3.54 | 19.2% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs SEA | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Brandon Eisert
Probable starter
|
CWS vs PHI | 2.39 | 20.9% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 12.7 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.